# Study: AI experts lowballed progress speed

> The Decoder reports a Forecasting Research Institute study found AI experts consistently underestimated progress, with IMO gold reached five years early.

- **Topic**: Research
- **Published**: 2026-09-25T02:15:39.591Z
- **Canonical URL**: https://highsignal.sh/stories/study-ai-experts-lowballed-progress-speed-75ff2efa

## Why It Matters

Forecast accuracy shapes how labs, funders, and policymakers plan; if expert timelines skew late on capability milestones, expectations and safety planning may lag reality.

## Key Findings & Analysis

### What the study found

- **The Decoder** reports the Forecasting Research Institute found leading AI experts have consistently underestimated how quickly the field advances. Benchmark actually hit: AI reached gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast. Business metric: Anthropic's annualized revenue came in at about five times what experts predicted.

### Where forecasts held up

- Per **The Decoder**, the record is more mixed for real-world applications: forecasts for uses like self-driving cars did not show the same pattern of underestimation.

## Primary Sources & Citations

- [Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds](https://the-decoder.com/top-ai-experts-badly-underestimated-how-fast-the-field-is-moving-study-finds/) — *The Decoder* (Reporting)

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