What the study found
- **The Decoder** reports the Forecasting Research Institute found leading AI experts have consistently underestimated how quickly the field advances. Benchmark actually hit: AI reached gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast. Business metric: Anthropic's annualized revenue came in at about five times what experts predicted. [1]
Where forecasts held up
- Per **The Decoder**, the record is more mixed for real-world applications: forecasts for uses like self-driving cars did not show the same pattern of underestimation. [1]
Sources
- Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds
The Decoder · Reporting ·